CASE STUDY · THUNDERBOLTS* & SENTRY
Sentry #1
CGC 9.8 NM/M · Universal · Marvel Comics, 2000
The movie built attention.
Release did not create a lasting breakout.
Recorded sales of Sentry #1 CGC 9.8 Universal across the Thunderbolts* cycle, from the film's announced ensemble through Bob Reynolds' casting, public reveal and theatrical debut.
01 / THE STUDY TIMELINE
The run-up lifted the range.
Release mostly held it in place.
Recorded CGC 9.8 sales from 2022 through capture, with eight dated film and publishing milestones. The baseline pools six complete months before Sentry's role in Thunderbolts* became public.
Dots retain recorded sale dates. Monthly medians sit at mid-month; connecting lines do not estimate daily prices. Lines connect observed medians across periods with no sales; no values are calculated for those empty periods. Bars show recorded transactions per period. September 2026 is partial through the September 10 recorded sale. Scroll horizontally on smaller screens.
May–Oct 2023 pooled median32 sales
May 2025 median; includes post-release sales23 sales
Jun–Aug 2025 pooled median16 sales
Jan 1–Sep 17; last sale Sep 1035 sales
WHAT THE SALES SHOW
The strongest move came before release.
The six-month pre-role-reveal baseline was $295 across 32 sales. Around Robert Kirkman's November 2023 disclosure that Steven Yeun was playing Sentry, the 90-day median moved from $265 (13 sales) to $285 (25), a +7.5% change.
The larger shift arrived during the 2024 marketing build. Around the July Comic-Con introduction of Lewis Pullman as Bob, the 90-day median rose from $236 (8) to $285 (17), or +20.8%. Around the September public teaser, it rose from $242.50 (14) to $289 (11), or +19.2%.
By the May 2, 2025 theatrical release, much of that repricing was already present. The 90-day comparison was $299.50 (34) before versus $305 (33) after, only +1.8%. May itself posted a $310 median across 23 sales; June through August eased to $297.50 across 16.
02 / CATALYST BY CATALYST
What changed around each event?
Median prices and recorded volumes in the 90 calendar days before and after each date. Event-day sales are excluded. Overlapping windows are not independent effects.
| Milestone | Before median | After median | Price change | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | $355.5010 sales | $33020 sales | -7.2% | +100.0% |
| $26513 sales | $28525 sales | +7.5% | +92.3% | |
3 Sentry (2023) #1 goes on sale ↗2023-12-06 | $27926 sales | $25112 sales | -10.0% | -53.8% |
| $29025 sales | $26112 sales | -10.0% | -52.0% | |
| $2368 sales | $28517 sales | +20.8% | +112.5% | |
| $242.5014 sales | $28911 sales | +19.2% | -21.4% | |
7 Thunderbolts* opens in U.S. theaters ↗2025-05-02 | $299.5034 sales | $30533 sales | +1.8% | -2.9% |
8 Sentry (2026) #1 goes on sale ↗2026-03-18 | $31012 sales | $2807 sales | -9.7% | -41.7% |
Samples below five transactions are flagged. Percentage changes are descriptive and do not establish causation. Monthly medians preserve the run-up to the film, but several 30-day event sides contain fewer than five sales. Use 90-day event windows for the primary catalyst table to improve descriptive coverage while retaining monthly chart detail; 30-day sensitivity remains in generated analysis. Five observations is an editorial warning threshold, not a significance test.
03 / THE LONG VIEW
The book had already traded higher before Thunderbolts*.
The lifetime view reproduces GPA's annual averages for every displayed year, with 2026 partial. The highest annual average was $488 in 2021, well before the film cycle. The highest recorded individual sale was $659 on May 21, 2021, and the highest monthly median was $605 in May 2021 across six sales.
Annual averages reproduce GPA’s rounded summaries and differ from the medians above. The capture year is partial.
What happened after the movie?
The post-release range did not hold at a new high. The June–August 2025 pooled median was $297.50, below May's $310. For 2026 through capture, the median is $260 across 35 sales. Even the March 2026 Sentry comic relaunch shows a lower 90-day median after publication ($280, 7 sales) than before it ($310, 12).
RESEARCH NOTES
Traceable data.
Defined comparisons.
Recorded transactions, documented exclusions, and sourced events.
Capture audit
GPAnalysis ↗ · 524 captured rows · 524 eligible rows · 305 plotted rows. Capture scope: lifetime. All 21 available annual summaries reconcile to their individual rows. GPA displayed no annual summary for 2012. Latest recorded sale: September 10, 2026; 2026 and September are partial.
Method selection
Monthly medians preserve the run-up to the film, but several 30-day event sides contain fewer than five sales. Use 90-day event windows for the primary catalyst table to improve descriptive coverage while retaining monthly chart detail; 30-day sensitivity remains in generated analysis. Five observations is an editorial warning threshold, not a significance test.
Identity & capture
Marvel's Sentry reading guide identifies Sentry (2000) #1 as Bob Reynolds' first official appearance. This study uses only the GPA category supplied for Sentry #1, CGC 9.8 Universal. All 524 dated rows supplied in the capture reconcile to GPA's 21 displayed annual summaries. No rows carried annotations requiring exclusion. Repeated certificate numbers remain separate recorded transactions.
Defined windows
The baseline pools May 1 through October 31, 2023, the six complete months before the public Sentry-role reveal. Release month is May 2025. Follow-up pools June through August 2025. The latest window runs January 1 through September 17, 2026; the last recorded sale is September 10.
Event comparisons use days −90 through −1 and +1 through +90, excluding the event day because sale times are unavailable. The 90-day choice was made before interpretation because several 30-day sides have fewer than five transactions. Generated analysis retains both 30- and 90-day sensitivity results. Monthly medians use individual recorded sales; observed monthly points are connected across empty periods without inventing intermediate values. Annual curves reproduce GPA's rounded annual averages.
Historical event sources
- Marvel: Marvel announces Thunderbolts cast at D232022-09-10 · Marvel's D23 announcement established the film and core ensemble but did not name Sentry or Bob Reynolds. It is context for the film cycle, not a Sentry-specific reveal.
- Los Angeles Times: Robert Kirkman reveals Steven Yeun as Sentry2023-11-16 · The Los Angeles Times reported November 17 on Kirkman's comments from the prior day's interview. Marvel had not formally announced Yeun's character, so this is a public role reveal rather than a studio confirmation.
- Marvel: Sentry (2023) #1 goes on sale2023-12-06 · A separate Sentry series launched weeks after the film-role reveal. This is a publishing catalyst and its sales are not part of the studied 2000 issue.
- ComicBook.com: Lewis Pullman reported as Yeun's replacement2024-01-29 · Contemporaneous reporting identified Pullman as the replacement after Yeun exited because of scheduling conflicts. Marvel still had not publicly named the role.
- Entertainment Weekly: Comic-Con footage introduces Pullman as Bob2024-07-27 · Marvel Studios presented Pullman as 'Bob' and screened footage at San Diego Comic-Con. Pullman teased that Bob was not his only name; Sentry remained an intentionally guarded identity.
- Good Morning America / Marvel Entertainment: First public Thunderbolts* teaser features Bob2024-09-23 · The first public teaser introduced Lewis Pullman's character as Bob and was released by Marvel Entertainment. It did not explicitly call him Sentry in the trailer.
- Marvel: Thunderbolts* opens in U.S. theaters2025-05-02 · Marvel lists May 2, 2025 as the release date. The finished film identifies Bob Reynolds as Sentry and the Void; release-day sales are excluded from the event comparison.
- Marvel: Sentry (2026) #1 goes on sale2026-03-18 · Paul Jenkins returned for a new Sentry series after the movie cycle. This later publication is a separate catalyst and not part of the studied issue's sales.
Prices are nominal GPA-displayed dollars, not inflation-adjusted. Fees, currency normalization, and individual listings have not been independently audited. Counts are recorded transactions, not unique physical copies or total-market volume. Timing alone does not establish cause; no broad-market control is applied. Certified Comic Shop Research · 2026-09-17.