MEDIA IMPACT STUDY · CLAYFACE (2026)
Detective Comics #298
CGC 4.5 VG+ · Universal · DC Comics, 1961
A shapeshifter’s debut.
A pre-release rise.
No post-release verdict yet.
Matt Hagen’s first appearance, tracked through Clayface film development and the run-up to theatrical release. Sparse trading limits the conclusions.
01 / THE STUDY TIMELINE
The rise precedes release.
The follow-up is still missing.
43 recorded sales from 2020 through capture, with quarterly medians and five dated film or publishing milestones.
Dots retain recorded sale dates. Quarterly medians sit at the quarter midpoint; connecting lines do not estimate daily prices. Lines connect observed medians across periods with no sales; no values are calculated for those empty periods. Bars show recorded transactions per period. 2026 Q4 and both post-release windows are incomplete at the November 2 capture; latest recorded sale October 5. Scroll horizontally on smaller screens.
2022 pooled median · four sales4 sales
2025 pooled median · four sales4 sales
July–September 2026 · six sales6 sales
13 sales · latest October 513 sales
WHAT THE SALES SHOW
Higher pre-release prices.
Very few observations.
The 2022 baseline median was $440 across four sales. The 2025 median was $575 across four sales. In July–September 2026, six sales produced a $775 median, 76.1% above that selected baseline in nominal dollars.
The highest individual sale was $900 on September 11, 2026. The highest quarterly median was $775 in Q3 2026. Both precede the October 23 theatrical release. The next recorded sale, October 5 at $561, is also before release and is the only observation in partial Q4.
The 2026 pooled median is $670 across 13 sales. A year-to-date pool, a six-sale quarter, and one isolated sale describe different windows; they should not be treated as interchangeable price estimates.
02 / CATALYST BY CATALYST
What changed around each event?
Median prices and recorded volumes in the 90 calendar days before and after each date. Event-day sales are excluded. Overlapping windows are not independent effects.
| Milestone | Before median | After median | Price change | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 Clayface pitch reported ↗2023-03-29 | $4143 sales · very small sample | N/A0 sales · very small sample | N/A | -100.0% |
2 Initial theatrical date announced ↗2024-12-13 | $4441 sales · very small sample | $6201 sales · very small sample | +39.6% | 0.0% |
3 Release moved to October ↗2026-02-06 | N/A0 sales · very small sample | $6295 sales | N/A | N/A |
4 | $7256 sales | $730.502 sales · very small sample | +0.8% | -66.7% |
5 North American theatrical release ↗2026-10-23 | $834.504 sales · very small sample | N/A0 sales · very small sample | N/A | -100.0% |
Samples below five transactions are flagged. Percentage changes are descriptive and do not establish causation. Only 50 sales over 2015–2026; most months are empty or contain one sale. Quarterly medians reduce monthly noise. Event windows use 90 days because 30-day comparisons frequently have zero or one sale; both sensitivities remain available. Even 90 days rarely supports a stable comparison.
03 / THE LONG VIEW
A longer climb, before the film arrived.
GPA’s rounded annual averages across all 50 captured transactions. These are averages, not quarterly medians. 2026 is partial; 2019 has no listed annual value. Lines connect observed years without estimating missing ones.
Annual averages reproduce GPA’s rounded summaries and differ from the medians above. The capture year is partial.
CATEGORY CHOICE
One requested grade.
Fifty recorded sales.
CGC Universal 4.5 was specified for this study. At capture, its 12-month summary contained 13 sales, compared with eight for 5.0, four for 4.0, and three for 3.5. That recent count does not make early event windows adequate. We retain the requested grade throughout.
RESEARCH NOTES
Traceable data.
Defined comparisons.
Recorded transactions, documented exclusions, and sourced events.
Capture audit
GPAnalysis ↗ · 50 captured rows · 50 eligible rows · 43 plotted rows. Capture scope: lifetime. All 50 individual rows across every available annual summary were captured. No 2019 annual summary is listed. Latest sale: October 5, 2026; no recorded post-release sale.
Method selection
Only 50 sales over 2015–2026; most months are empty or contain one sale. Quarterly medians reduce monthly noise. Event windows use 90 days because 30-day comparisons frequently have zero or one sale; both sensitivities remain available. Even 90 days rarely supports a stable comparison.
Sales & scope
Captured from the signed-in Chrome GPA page on November 2, 2026: all 50 standard Universal 4.5 transactions across every listed annual summary, 2015–2026. Annual counts reconcile; 2019 has no listed summary. No annotated transactions required exclusion. Repeated certificates remain separate sales. Detailed chart: 43 sales from 2020 onward. Prices are nominal GPA-displayed dollars; fees, currency normalization, inflation, and original listings were not independently audited.
Windows & calculations
The baseline pools the complete calendar year 2022 (four sales), before the March 2023 pitch report. It is a selected pre-report baseline, not proof of a rumor-free market. Comparisons pool 2025 (four), July–September 2026 (six), and 2026 through capture (13). Different window lengths reflect sparse trading and are labeled. Quarterly medians pool individual sales and sit at quarter midpoints. Empty quarters have no values; the chart connects consecutive observed points without imputing missing periods. The single-sale Q4 is partial.
Event comparisons use days -90 through -1 and +1 through +90, excluding event day. Both 30- and 90-day sensitivities are retained in analysis.json. Counts below five are warnings, not significance tests. Empty windows are N/A. The October release follow-up is incomplete at capture, and no sale has been recorded after release; zero recorded sales is not evidence of zero market trading.
Identity & overlapping news
DC identifies Detective Comics #298 as Matt Hagen’s 1961 debut and explains the movie’s animated-series influence. This is the second Clayface, not Basil Karlo’s first appearance in Detective Comics #40. The original 1961 edition is studied, not the October 2026 facsimile. Contemporaneous release-plan reporting also notes animation exposure. The event list is selective; overlapping promotion and reprint news cannot be separated by these windows.
Historical event sources
- ComingSoon, citing Deadline: Clayface pitch reported2023-03-29 · Reporting date of a pitch, not a greenlight or a known meeting date.
- TheWrap: Initial theatrical date announced2024-12-13 · Studio announcement initially scheduled September 11, 2026. This is the dated release plan, distinct from earlier greenlight reporting.
- TheWrap: Release moved to October2026-02-06 · Studio moves the film to October 23, 2026. This is schedule news, not release.
- 13th Dimension: Detective Comics #298 facsimile reported2026-07-31 · Reporting date of the added solicitation; scheduled in-store October 21. The 2026 facsimile is excluded from this original-issue GPA category.
- DC: North American theatrical release2026-10-23 · North American date; international opening began October 21. Latest GPA sale precedes both dates. Post-event windows are incomplete and contain no recorded sales.
Prices are nominal GPA-displayed dollars, not inflation-adjusted. Fees, currency normalization, and individual listings have not been independently audited. Counts are recorded transactions, not unique physical copies or total-market volume. Timing alone does not establish cause; no broad-market control is applied. Certified Comic Shop Research · 2026-11-02.